franklyn
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A Solar Flare can ruin your whole day
Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome Reprised
http://nypost.com/2014/07/24/solar-flare-nearly-destroyed-ea...
Related post
www.sciencemadness.org/talk/viewthread.php?tid=17281&pag...
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AJKOER
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Here is a another version of the story, see http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23...
Some interesting points, to quote:
"In my view the July 2012 storm was in all respects at least as strong as the 1859 Carrington event," says Baker. "The only difference is, it missed."
In February 2014, physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in Space Weather entitled "On the probability of occurrence of
extreme space weather events." In it, he analyzed records of solar storms going back 50+ years. By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to
the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years.
The answer: 12%.
OK, so we have hawks approving building for the US a fleet of new Aluminum (????, as I noted in a prior thread, galvanic corrosion issues already)
warships for something close to a final cost of around half a trillion dollars, but apparently, there is no will or thought or money (greed, crony
capitalism at its best) to insulate the American power grid so that America is not thrown back into the near stone age with odds higher than 1 in 10
in the next decade.
The last statement is probably a misstatement, however, about the stone age as they have at least access to running drinkable water (not to mention
being able to make fire, hunt and grow their own food). The reason, apparently electric pumps are currently widely employed by muncipalities to effect
the delivery of water. This means for many of us, no power and no water.
I believe, however, not all countries are as daring as the US, as I recall hearing that Germany has taken preventive measures on its electric grid.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Some statistic based on the Geometric probability distribution defined by Wikipedia as follows (see http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution ):
"It’s the probability that the first occurrence of success require k number of independent trials, each with success probability p. If the
probability of success on each trial is p, then the probability that the kth trial (out of k trials) is the first success is
Pr(X = k) = p(1-p)^{k-1}
for k = 1, 2, 3, ....
Now, for p=.12, the mean or expected number of decades until an event is 1/p or 8.33 decades. However, the formula for the median (meaning on repeated
occurrences throughout history, half the number of observed events resulting in a catastrophic hit will be under this value) renders, per my
calculations, a value of only 5.42 decades. But before anyone gets too worried, the good news is that the standard deviation of the number of trials
till success is large at 7.8 decades. Also, good news in that the model of a constant p of 12% per examination of historical sunspots (see http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspot_cyc... ), suggests to me a better model would be to use a mixture of Geometric
distributions with an average probability of still 12%, but with say 2/3 of the time, the value is low at 9%, and the other 1/3, it is high at 18%.
Then, the combined expected number of decades till an event (a massive solar flare hit on our planet) increases to 9.26 decades, and so does its
standard deviation, which is the likely reason we still have electricity and can talk about near misses.
[Edited on 3-8-2014 by AJKOER]
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Chemosynthesis
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US power stations and infrastructure are, sadly, a soft target to as little as a mischievous teen with a wrench in many instances.
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Artemus Gordon
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I hate to second-guess a NASA article, but this sounds like a lot of hyperbole. Sure, a solar flare could generate huge EMP pulses in long
transmission lines, but these lines are designed with circuit breakers and spark gaps. I'm sure they get hit by lightning all the time and very little
permanent damage is caused. Yes, there would be blackouts and communication disruptions, but I doubt much actual destruction of equipment. I certainly
don't think such an event would throw us back to the Dark Ages.
[Edited on 3-8-2014 by Artemus Gordon]
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IrC
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You must look at it with understanding of the grid as a whole. If everyone nationwide turned off all things when power went down on such a scale then
maybe your right. You must think of what it takes to start this mega grid with all the loads. Major transformers would be overloaded and burn out. In
effect this is why a substation in Canada going down can blackout all the way down past NY. Transformers chain blow from excessive partial loads when
the load spends too long just below breakers tripping but high enough to cause severe overheating and failures. In effect if you look at the MWH
needed all at once to start up the grid you see the picture. Imagine the turn on surge current required to start 200 million refrigerator and AC or
heating motors because no one turned anything off after the blackout. Add to this everything else loading the grid waiting for power to return. This
is in effect a major reason for chain reactions in the grid when the total supply falls below a critical value required to maintain the grid as a
whole. Entire sections of multiple states collapse. Believe me this quagmire is not easy to restart. If some of the mega transformers blow it takes 2
years to build them and we have few to no backups. Yet they have had decades counting their profits to have them built and stored in reserve, just as
they could have been going state by state putting all power underground. This alone would protect from both nature and weaponized EMP devices. No,
they would rather drool over their stock value and bank accounts short term giving no thought to the long term. Either that or they love all the
electrical noise which could have been eradicated years ago.
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" Richard Feynman
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franklyn
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It gets better
See Simple Network Management Protocal ( SNMP )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_Network_Management_Proto...
This is the way almost all infrastructure is remotely controlled. For example cable companies regularly flash the firmware of your modem in this way.
SNMP is used with Broadband over Power Lines ( BPL ) by electric utilities to provide command and control access to infrastructure circumventing
conventional communication channels providing internet access. Also called "power line communications" (PLC), high-frequencies carrying data are
superimposed over the low-frequency waves on the electrical transmission lines. This allows for example a utility to issue a command during excessive
power demand to remotely switch compliant appliances such as air conditioners into a low power setting. Consumer home security appliances using modems
plug into any electrical outlet in the home or office and connect to your computer or usually the manufacturers controller. This can be readilly
hacked to eavesdrop and snoop over powerlines.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjBJHy1hD_A&feature=youtu.be&...
Related thread here
www.sciencemadness.org/talk/viewthread.php?tid=19386&pag...
Onward and upward , the sky's the limit , interfering with air traffic control.
http://youtu.be/mY2uiLfXmaI?t=34m38s
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AJKOER
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The last local power outage I experienced was over a week and because the gas stations used electric pumps, gasoline was hard to get also.
Not much panic as just about everyone knew of when the power was predicted to be restored.
Now, envision a scenario of a projected multiyear blackout, a likely panic, and an over supply of guns. Nothing to worry about , or possibly prepare
for?
[EDIT] Something I did not expect or could plan for was the loss of water pressure, which made the prospect of spread of disease (toilets can't flush,
garbage piles, ...) along with the possible uncontrolled spread of burning homes/building unsettling. The weather wasn't exactly warm either and many
who remained in their homes either use their stoves to provide heat or a fire place. Also, people used candles to save batteries, all of which
presents a fire hazard. My family soon decided to move in with a relative outside of the outage area. We were lucky.
A much longer event, I expect that sanitation issues coupled with reduce food intake would make disease/starvation the primary factor in reducing the
population in the long term. Those thinking that they would be capable of going somewhere better/safer and providing for their personal health and
security may not find any of this scenario as requiring immediate preventative action (probably, mistakenly so).
[Edited on 9-8-2014 by AJKOER]
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Tdep
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Blackout
I watched this the other day, highly recommend it. I really think they've done their research in making this, and for me it is shocking for just how
real it all seems.
[Edited on 9-8-2014 by Tdep]
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franklyn
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This is in Whimsy you will need access
www.sciencemadness.org/talk/viewthread.php?tid=25786
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Morgan
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Lots of fun facts to ponder here. A good synopsis
The Carrington Event | Fascinating Horror
https://youtu.be/C9tfx6rfAIo
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