Sciencemadness Discussion Board - Ebola

It seems unlikely that it will be able to spread in the USA or Europe,...?

Why?
How does the virus know what continent it's on?

gregxy - 14-10-2014 at 12:35

Of course the virus does not care what continent it is on. However the
rate of infection is highly dependent on the behavior of the population.

Here is a recent report from the CDC:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=...

Re-transmission is 1.8 if nothing is done
0.18 if isolated at home
0.12 if isolated in a hospital (probably get higher the harder work to save them)
Per CDC Stopping the epidemic requires isolating 70% of the sick.

jock88 - 14-10-2014 at 13:04

What exactly is 'isolated at home'?

We have an idea of what isolated in hospital (west) is. It is very hard to believe that
the difference in isolation at home and isolation in hospital are sol close.

Amos - 14-10-2014 at 13:46

What exactly is 'isolated at home'?

We have an idea of what isolated in hospital (west) is. It is very hard to believe that
the difference in isolation at home and isolation in hospital are sol close.

Ebola patients really aren't the most mobile of people, if you didn't already know. People that are very sick with the disease already aren't likely to emerge from their dwelling unless a rescuer comes by or they're in a body bag. There are people out there that are so pathologically afraid of hospitals/medical treatment(or ideologically stunted) that they won't seek help. Many uneducated people would probably mistake their case for the flu or some other sickness, and simply stay home from work/school until they improve.

Hawkguy - 14-10-2014 at 15:17

Now that white people have Ebola, you can bet yourself that a cure is on the way...

j_sum1 - 14-10-2014 at 16:06

Quote: Originally posted by Hawkguy

Now that white people have Ebola, you can bet yourself that a cure is on the way...

That's just inflammatory.
To be sure, human trials on vaccines and treatments have started. But work began on them before the spread to the west.
The disease is scary because of the severe and dramatic symptoms and the high mortality rate. Also, not a whole lot is known about it including the vectors of the disease and the various options for treatment. This latest outbreak has caught everyone by surprise because of its magnitude. It is right for us to invest time and money into finding solutions. And "us" means those with the money -- ie, the West. It really has nothing to do with the skin colour of those affected.
That said, there is no doubt that it is to our advantage as well as to the advantage of African nations to have ways of treating the disease.

Bert - 14-10-2014 at 23:26

Cell phones are VERY popular in Africa... And used just as in USA/Europe, cell phone cameras come out for police and electoral improprieties or any other notable event.

You would expect a substantial number of cell phone equipped local africans to blog & make other postings, and upload numerous pictures related to the ebola epidemic as it develops.

Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.

macckone - 15-10-2014 at 07:33

Second Dallas ebola case among nurses is now news:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/in...

gregxy - 16-10-2014 at 11:33

New article stating airborne transmission is possible for a short time:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/ebola-can-be-transmitted-via-in...

Ebola can remain in the semen of a recovered person for 3 months:
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html

Addition:
The Ro = 1.8 value that is quoted in the papers is derived by fitting the rate of growth in West Africa. From what I can tell this region is mostly rural and the economy agricultural, and the overall population density low.
Most of the roads are dirt. The rate of spread within a family appears to much higher than 1.8. But since sick individuals tend to weaken quickly and movement is difficult the sick stay at home so spread between families is lower, maybe R=0.5 The combination of the 2 gives 1.8.

In a densely populated city transmission between families may be much higher than in West Africa (through work places, schools, public transportation or a contaminated water source) so in this situation the over all R could be much larger than 1.8.

[Edited on 16-10-2014 by gregxy]

froot - 17-10-2014 at 01:50

Quote:

Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.

This is so true, but then again, where on the net would you upload photos you take here in Africa? Facebook? Is it possible that Facebook is censoring uploads?
If there is some sort of censorship going on then I'm highly suspicious of the the reporting of cases and weather countries such as mine have been keeping cases under wraps in fear of effects on their economies.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 04:45

Ebola is a naturally occurring virulent plague contagion equivalent to a level 4 germ warfare agent, and known very well to be airborne contagious for more than twenty years, confirmed by NIH published studies.

That fact does not square with misleading information provided by news media and deceptive public officials as propaganda intended to soothe fears and avoid panic. What is actually unfolding is a shit hit the fan kind of situation being managed by administrators who are criminally negligent and grossly incompetent, talking out their asses instead of implementing appropriate quarantine measures that should have been done months ago.

Amos - 17-10-2014 at 05:20

Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine

Ebola is a naturally occurring virulent plague contagion equivalent to a level 4 germ warfare agent, and known very well to be airborne contagious for more than twenty years, confirmed by NIH published studies.

That fact does not square with misleading information provided by news media and deceptive public officials as propaganda intended to soothe fears and avoid panic. What is actually unfolding is a shit hit the fan kind of situation being managed by administrators who are criminally negligent and grossly incompetent, talking out their asses instead of implementing appropriate quarantine measures that should have been done months ago.

When you say airborne, to what extent do you mean? Small droplets of fluid expelled from an infected person can certainly be inhaled and cause disease, but I don't see how those droplets could stay suspended (or stay "wet" enough for the virus to survive) for 20 years. Can you attach a source or two to support that claim?

Otherwise I definitely agree that many public officials and health workers are completely underestimating the disease, while many politicians are doing their best to stir up panic without doing anything productive about the issue. I've heard one nutjob go so far as to say that there are ISIS militants crossing the US border with Mexico and that they're bringing Ebola with them.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 06:12

Here is a 1995 article

Transmission of Ebola virus (Zaire strain) to uninfected control monkeys in a biocontainment laboratory.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8551825

And here is another 1995 article

Lethal experimental infections of rhesus monkeys by aerosolized Ebola virus.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7547435

There is a lot of equivocation about the non-existent distinction for practical purposes what is the real difference between aerosol and airborne ......and of course we aren't talking about the vapor pressure of a virus as if it were a solvent evaporating .....but we are talking about can this virus float in the air and use the wind from breathing or shuffling feet or butterfly wings to move from point A to point B .........yes it can.

I would point out that 20 years is not required for the transport of live vrus to retain viability ......even seconds or minutes would be sufficient. And certainly in cold weather and low himidity there is a natural cryodessication that could occur and put live virus in the air for long periods. Anyway it is really a non issue which is missing the point entirely that ebola is a virulent and highly contagious plague which really requires level 4 protocols like would be used in a germ warfare laboratory, and people who are denying this are simply lying about it.

[Edited on 17-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

Bert - 17-10-2014 at 08:22

Quote: Originally posted by froot

Quote:

Anyone seen the affected area's local people posting pictures? I am seeing the same stock photos over and over.

I have seen some USA postings by those who would deny that there IS an ebola epidemic, based on the lack of such pictures and postings by the common people in the allegedly affected areas.

I admit, I've no idea what social media west/central Africans might choose to post there stuff to-

If what's happening on the ground in Africa is so god awful looking that net censorship is being imposed to prevent panic for protection of economic interests, someone has made a VERY bad choice. At policy level in the US, nothing seems to have been learned from the last epidemic that came out of Africa-

Looking at the potential repercussions of large numbers of infections, loss of critical skilled operators and workers just plain refusing to leave home and come to work on our NUCLEAR POWER PLANT INFRASTRUCTURE, I can see a world wide mass extinction level event unfolding if power grid goes down and the reactor cores/spent fuel pools melt and burn.

Nothing lasting was learned at policy level from the events at Fukushima either, apparently.

I have a habit of studying major disasters and "accidents". They usually are multi component events, with each individual accident/incident/bad engineering choice/lack of foresight and over site interacting synergistically to yield these very bad outcomes... And I think I'm about to study my last one.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 08:57

Recently I mentioned disturbing events in the news which could have apocalyptic consequences and this is one facet of that news I had in mind, understanding that the people tasked with risk management of potential catastrophes are quite clueless, at least measured by what things they are publicly saying.

IrC - 17-10-2014 at 09:18

Last one Bert? You may well be right.

Yet another political appointee with zero medical qualifications, zero experience, a trip and fall Lawyer is going to be the Ebola Czar? A nurse who worked at the hospital but not near patient zero decides to take a Caribbean cruise confined with large numbers of people. Now in quarantine in Belize with officials stating her symptoms are clearly Ebola. One who did work with P-zero decides to fly to Ohio. On and on yet to quote Obola "it is not a good idea to stop flights coming in from Ebola stricken nations". This logic is insanity, suicidal madness plain and simple. Sending people in to help is fine, allowing infected people to fly here with no warning and no quarantine is suicidal insanity. While refusing to close the border to an endless influx of unknown persons all in hopes of building the democrat voter base while giving zero thought to the safety and security of a nation. You do not stand naked in a fire dousing it with gas in an effort to quell the inferno. Unless you are a mindless PC liberal politician making decisions affecting the lives of hundreds of millions all based on purely political goals. Madness. 2 months ago there was not a single Ebola infected person in the country that we know of. I leave room to consider the reports of Africans down south migrating here through those open borders.

Oh did my use of the word Obola offend any liberals here? When you are soaking in sweat with a 104 fever holding your dead child while starving due to empty shelves in the stores, at that moment ask me if I care what you think of my political stance right now. A multitude of insane decisions is heading us to extinction and I for one blame all those who put them in charge.

Amos - 17-10-2014 at 09:39

Rosco, I'm going to ignore the hysterics that posted before me(YES, the world is ending now, today! If only Romney had been elected!) and continue our conversation. I have heard of and looked into the monkey-laboratory case, and established that yes, Ebola can be spread through airborne means, but where did you find the figure of 20 years? I have heard 20 DAYS.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 09:54

Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now

Rosco, I'm going to ignore the hysterics that posted before me(YES, the world is ending now, today! If only Romney had been elected!) and continue our conversation. I have heard of and looked into the monkey-laboratory case, and established that yes, Ebola can be spread through airborne means, but where did you find the figure of 20 years? I have heard 20 DAYS.

You are misunderstanding my meaning over a misplaced prepositional phrase ....pardon my grammatical error......I thought my meaning was clear enough by the 1995 article dates .....approximately 20 years ago for the data not for the live virus environmental persistence which is unknown.

Tearless and clueless have a lot in common. You may be comforted to ignore Darwin Award class stupidity by clueless sycophants you may think are just the smartest persons ever, and make their mental incompetency and depraved indifference and criminal negligence your politically correct meme substituted for common sense and wisdom ......but people with higher cerebral functioning are rightly concerned about what is disturbing events unfolding due in no small part attributable to the steering skills of reckless drivers in dire need of adult supervision.

Edit: file attached for your reading pleasure

Attachment: TheHotZone.pdf (2MB)
This file has been downloaded 2622 times

[Edited on 17-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

Amos - 17-10-2014 at 13:12

Rosco, I finally understand what you meant, and yes, I agree that far too much misinformation about Ebola has been spread largely to prevent unrest. Now, I was keeping things classy in my discussion with you, showing a genuine interest in what you were talking about, and I may have made a slight reading error when interpreting your post but I did nothing to you personally to deserve such an attack.
IrC, I will respond to you by saying that it is entirely impossible for you to know the president's intentions or motivations with regards to the decisions he has made, just as it is impossible for me to read your mind. I never put words in your mouth, I only added in my own sarcastic comments because they seemed to fit in with the general atmosphere here. It hardly matters if you are insulted as you mentioned earlier that you had no qualms about offending anyone with what you said, so you kind of asked for it. Also, I don't recall spending money on education. I wasn't a private school kid.

I think that you grossly overestimate how much responsibility and how much power the president wields in the area of medicine. Right now, it is not even a priority of national security that we have Ebola in our country right now. It's receiving a lot of media attention right now because it's making its debut on American soil, but so far it has done no more damage than the bubonic plague typically does in a year within the US(the same disease that once wiped out nearly a third of all living humans).

Rosco Bodine and IrC, when the number of Ebola cases worldwide has begun falling and the United States still has its infrastructure, and the civilized world as we know it carries on about its business as it always had before, I want an apology from both of you. You've both chosen to label me as a person of inferior intellect based on what I had to say about this issue, when honestly nobody here, and probably nobody anywhere else unless they've been studying the disease in its original environment, has the foresight to determine what will happen. The politicians in power during this ebola outbreak aren't going to change before it's over, so when we're all still alive and the world hasn't ended, you won't have any excuse as to why your predictions were incorrect. You and your inflated intellects will merely be wrong.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 14:09

http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2014/10/obama-plans-let-eb...

Interesting development if this is later confirmed true because it shows the mens rea for the criminal negligence and depraved indifference revealed by failure to provide for the safety of American citizens being put FIRST, as the proper legal and moral duty that does exist and is enforceable.

IrC - 17-10-2014 at 14:21

Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now

Thus proving you wasted the money spent on education. While attempting to convey a superior intellect you miss the mark on every single point. One you cannot tell the difference between hysteria and anger. Second you ASSume I would have supported Romney, who in my opinion is just as big a mindless fool as Obola. Meaning you obviously do not have a clue when you make your so called intellectually superior ASSumptions. Third you cannot even read with comprehension, ASSuming 20 years relates to something I did not speak to. I was saying they have known for 20 years or longer Ebola can be airborne. What you prove is you know nothing whatsoever.

If I sound insulting then admit you first insulted, or does your failure of reading comprehension also include your own words which were both clearly insulting and clearly directed directly against myself. Stop ASSuming what others think, believe, or support. It is very clear you not only have no clue, you call it wrong every time. FYI I am one who does not follow anyone or any party blindly. I look at each person individually based upon the merits known. I make decisions based upon facts, logic, reason, knowledge. Always choosing the best path available in any situation on any subject. I have no doubt such an outlook is alien to you and all who think in similar ways.

I should point out one aspect that must exist to define hysteria is fear. I am not afraid I have faith. Yet another thing alien to so many. I am angry because simple common sense would have stopped Ebola here before it started. There is no reason for this outbreak. We have had protocols for over 50 years, every one of which has been thrown under the buss by this government. A hundred years ago we were protected since all immigrants had to stay on Ellis Island until it was clear they were not bringing in any disease. Simple common sense.

Close the borders and refuse to allow any flights coming in from Africa unless they are only allowed at an isolated fully quarantined location where no one gets out unless after 3 full weeks they show zero signs of Ebola. Each group in a given week isolated from new groups, workers separated from each other within the groups who also cannot rejoin the mainland population until they also prove to be Ebola free. There is no reason for Ebola to be here if simple precautions were taken and this illness, a virtual death sentence, was brought to us by the criminals running things. This makes me damn angry.

You posted before I finished editing. Apology my shiny metal ass. I never said the world was ending, you posted those words in such a way as to proclaim they were mine. Dishonesty is the word. All I did was agree with the words of Bert by saying he may be right. "Last one Bert? You may well be right.".

The world will not end nor will I, my creator will protect me while people are bleeding out around me. This is something I have no doubt most cannot understand or believe. Ironically it is also why I have nothing to fear while most do. Yet death and illness is not going to be the only outcome, the destruction to our economy is something which will make my life even harder, my income lower, unnecessarily so. This could have all been avoided.

"I think that you grossly overestimate how much responsibility and how much power the president wields in the area of medicine. Right now, it is not even a priority of national security that we have Ebola in our country right now."

The one thing which is a solid mandate under the Constitution is the requirement (not merely the wish) that the President protect our borders, sovereignty, and citizens. Therefore the power (and responsibility) is given to him to do just that. He orders people in various positions to accomplish this goal. However when he makes political appointments of unqualified people such as the trip and fall lawyer he is making the new 'Ebola Czar' he has abdicated that Constitutional responsibility. It was his decision alone as to who he puts in charge of carrying out his Constitutional responsibilities. There is a reason for the phrase 'the buck stops here'. Problem is 100 percent of his entire term he has taken no responsibility for a single thing, all the 'bucks' belong to others. Every single time.

"Also, I don't recall spending money on education. I wasn't a private school kid"

Since there is no free education nor lunches, someone paid with money forcibly taken by the IRS from their labor. Nothing to brag about.

jock88 - 17-10-2014 at 14:41

Were there not ebola outbreaks before in Africa. The world as we know it did not come to an end.

Bert - 17-10-2014 at 14:53

Were there not ebola outbreaks before in Africa. The world as we know it did not come to an end.

Urban outbreaks, or rural? If they were rural, with low population density and low personal mobility, a VERY different situation from a tightly packed urban slum next to an airport.

The world had seen plenty of flu outbreaks before the pandemic flu of 1918. The effect was a bit different then...

Now we have a rather different industrial and urban infrastructure than in 1918. How many ongoing industrial processes were there in 1918 that could render a continent uninhabitable if the electric power failed and everyone just walked away from them for a month?

macckone - 17-10-2014 at 15:20

Ebola rest on was easily spread via airborne particles.
It is descended from Ebola Zaire but they are not the same.
Ebola of any kind can be spread by airborne droplets.
However it's viability is negligible by aerosols.
Not zero but negligible. If an Ebola patient coughs
bloody sputum all over you there is a reasonably high risk.
This happens a lot in a medical setting but not so much on
a bus. It also can't penetrate unbroken skin.
Unlike the flu which can live on surfaces for hours
Ebola is in the range of a couple of minutes.
If you touch an Ebola infected surface you then need
To rub your eyes or nose for transmission within a very
Short time frame.

Now contact with sweat droplets, vomit, sputum, or blood
Is more dangerous because those can stay moist
For hours days and even weeks.

The lack of contagion before symptoms appear is much
More debatable and there is significant evidence that
People are contagious for hours before symptoms are
Noticeable.

Now as an intelligent person I would say there is significant
Financial pressure not to close the borders. There is also
significant pressure to bring patients to the US for clinical
Trials. The quarantine proposal is feasible but not practical.

Banning travelers from west Africa is possible but
People will start hiding their travel. And that makes tracking
Potentially infectious people more difficult. And by law we
Can't keep out citizens. That silly constitution thing and all.
We could quarantine them but that falls to the local government
Where they land. And frankly Dallas didn't want to foot
The bill for one man let alone hundreds or thousands.

S.C. Wack - 17-10-2014 at 15:40

Thought this would be related to chemistry somehow, not a whimsy thread outside of it...this is why I never read it...BTW I rather doubt any cell service at all in the areas where people are attacking white doctors/outsiders in general, disinfectant sprayers, etc. if they dare enter the area...much less people affording cell phones and monthly service, in areas where people are eating monkeys...

Close the borders and refuse to allow any flights coming in from Africa unless they are only...brought to us by the criminals running things. This makes me damn angry.

Much like how I feel about hysteric authoritarian knee-jerks...who often have a sort of (often uninformed) thinking (yes the thought police and dangerous thinking) far more pervasive and dangerous than Ebola viz. the one (1) person to spread it here.

Rosco Bodine - 17-10-2014 at 16:10

Isolation and quarantine protocols for prevention of epidemics from contagious diseases is not an unreasoning kind of paranoia that is a product of hysteria. On the contrary it is a well reasoned and well founded, absolutely scientifically proven approach to protecting the health of uninfected populations of plants, animals, and humans from becoming infected with disease by transmission from others already infected. This is not some new or untested idea that was dreamt up by authoritarian knee jerks or control freaks but is an old established practice which well serves self preservation and is a common sense counter measure against extinction.

S.C. Wack - 17-10-2014 at 17:44

So everyone with HIV should have been sent to its home in Africa? How about quarantining those kids with peanut allergies so the 99.999999% of other kids can have peanut butter sandwiches again? Surely hereditary diseases need to be stopped before all of our descendants have them, now that medicine allows the genetically unsound to reproduce?

Who's saying ebola patients shouldn't be quarantined?

franklyn - 17-10-2014 at 18:11

The most famous case of involuntary quarantine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoid_Mary

Traveling from east to west there are places that have served similar purpose in
the past that can be re-purposed now. There are also various FEMA facilities that
are suitable. A hospital ship could be used immediately and is probably ideal.
It makes no sense that I can see to treat victims with evident disease locally
where ever they may be.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plum_Island_Animal_Disease_Cent...
Currently for sale
http://www.gsa.gov/portal/content/180067

The ones most capable in close association with the CDC
Fort Detrick, Maryland,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Medical_Rese...
http://www.usamriid.army.mil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dugway_Proving_Ground
Operational
http://www.dugway.army.mil

My personal favorite
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnston_Atoll
Had been for sale
http://www.thelivingmoon.com/45jack_files/03files/Johnston_A...
http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2010/04/isolated-and-abandon...

.

IrC - 17-10-2014 at 18:35

Quote: Originally posted by Rosco Bodine

Isolation and quarantine protocols for prevention of epidemics from contagious diseases is not an unreasoning kind of paranoia that is a product of hysteria. On the contrary it is a well reasoned and well founded, absolutely scientifically proven approach to protecting the health of uninfected populations of plants, animals, and humans from becoming infected with disease by transmission from others already infected. This is not some new or untested idea that was dreamt up by authoritarian knee jerks or control freaks but is an old established practice which well serves self preservation and is a common sense counter measure against extinction.

Good luck convincing so called science minded people who think along the lines S.C. Wack just posted. How odd that any decent so called 'chemist' here would keep their Prussic or Carbolic acids stored in safe containers, who would fear letting Fluorine gas or 70% HF out of the container to float around the room or drip upon their skin. People who are paranoid about Hg or worse the Dimethyl variety, yet think I am hysterical or paranoid for saying we should implement the most sound, sane, simple common sense precaution of stopping Ebola infected people from walking freely around a population of 110 million people.

Or 7 billion, after all so many are jetting around the globe even as I speak. A virus with a kill rate of 70 percent or higher. By the way for all the bodies that are, and those yet to be, the kill rate was 100 percent. Quoting proliferation statistics based upon outbreaks (in isolated villages with near zero modes of transportation) long past is useless when one considers the vast increase in numbers of infected people and distance traveled, spanning the globe at this moment in time.

Seriously, implying a pathology of mind with the symptoms of hysteria and paranoia for merely choosing not to allow even the chance of exposure to something which may as well be VX for all the chance of survival one has? You have got to be kidding me. Taking a liberal political approach to dealing with Ebola and you call yourselves scientists? It boggles the mind. If a pathology of mind applies look in the mirror when you so cavalierly dismiss the danger facing humanity at this moment in time.
Ask all the thousands of dead people, or the millions by January as has been predicted by some of the brightest in the field of virology if they wish they had the chance to go back and not be infected by whoever it was that killed them. Oh wait, you cannot.

So many keep speaking to the fact that the deadly to humans strain is not airborne while ignoring the number of mutations yet to be analyzed which has already occurred in the thousands of victims. Doing so with the voice of 'scientific authority' as if all factors are known at this moment in time yet no exhaustive study of all recent cases has been done. For the simple reason when one is in the middle of the fight to save people while hoping they do not join them in the next dimension, one is not able to gather all the data, do all the research needed to be sure the handle they think they have is as firm as they believe it is. How many hundreds of medical personnel have been infected, and/or died thus far, even though they took every known precaution their equipment and training provided? Can they say with absolute certainty a mutation yet to be discovered and proven has not already occurred, can they prove it is not now airborne? Then why are so many doctors being infected in light of the precautions they took?

While you may choose to believe the so called 'experts' doing their media interviews about the 'facts' they are so sure of, pardon me if I choose to trust none of them. Scientists? Experts? Someone move this thread to Whimsy it would fit better there. In other words, what this town needs is an enema.

Quote: Originally posted by S.C. Wack

So everyone with HIV should have been sent to its home in Africa? How about quarantining those kids with peanut allergies so the 99.999999% of other kids can have peanut butter sandwiches again? Surely hereditary diseases need to be stopped before all of our descendants have them, now that medicine allows the genetically unsound to reproduce?

Who's saying ebola patients shouldn't be quarantined?

I can go out on the town, go shopping, be employed working with hundreds, walk along the streets, fly the world, go on a Caribbean cruise, all while never having unprotected sex and be infected with HIV. I can also do all of the above having never once eaten peanuts. This cannot be compared with Ebola, you are far beyond the apples and oranges realm. If I had to state how far beyond I am not sure even buffalo and ants would apply.

I never implied you stated 'Ebola patients shouldn't be quarantined', but it certainly appears you have real problems with my desire to close the borders and stop Ebola infected people from flying in from Africa. Especially when they vomit and die as they land in New York or are quarantined near Belize after communing with hundreds in close confinement on a cruise ship. The latter example indicating those already here who have been exposed should also not be allowed travel or engage in social contact in society. The life of even a single person not already exposed is far more important than the imposition of a month of quarantine upon someone who has been or may have been exposed. Even a small amount of common sense and due consideration to the safety of others is better than the way things are being handled at this point in time. Absolutely suicidal liberal insanity seems to be the view of far too many as can be seen by anyone following the news.

On another concern. Is one 'hysterically paranoid' to want the borders closed. Closed means fully controlled. Only people with proper ID enter in accordance with established law. No more unknown strangers coming in through a remote area carrying only God knows what and for what purpose. Would I be 'hysterically paranoid' to not wish to be on one of 4 select planes on 911? Have not the terrorists made quite clear their intentions against us? Are not prayer rugs and korans being found all over the border area for years now? Could not a terrorist or large number of the same infect themselves and enter secretly? Are you any good at playing Chess? Only a complete moron would insist on unsecured borders while denying the chance of disaster their wish implies. Is this the way other nations operate? Are untold numbers allowed to sneak into any country they wish in the EU or do those nations pay attention to who and what is entering? Do I really need to go into these scenarios or is it not self evident that no nation can survive being run the way our government is now running this one? Is there no intelligence and common sense left on earth?

[Edited on 10-18-2014 by IrC]

S.C. Wack - 17-10-2014 at 20:06

Seeing bogeymen everywhere isn't hysteria at all...perfectly normal for many...cue the shrugged shoulders, everlasting indifference to any inconvenient facts or collateral damage.
Someone is vomiting in an airplane! Panic! Panic! They got the ebola!!! We can't take any chances!!! Totally not hysteria.

IrC - 17-10-2014 at 20:16

Thus is the way of the pathologically liberal, seeing all things in extremes. Accusing one of paranoia and hysteria in lieu of honest level headed caution and concern in light of the real facts in existence at this time in history. Someone acts prudently and logically with sound reason and the pathologically liberal can only view it through the eyes of hysterical hyperbole. Par for the course.

Sedit - 17-10-2014 at 21:39

Quote: Originally posted by S.C. Wack

Seeing bogeymen everywhere isn't hysteria at all...perfectly normal for many...cue the shrugged shoulders, everlasting indifference to any inconvenient facts or collateral damage.
Someone is vomiting in an airplane! Panic! Panic! They got the ebola!!! We can't take any chances!!! Totally not hysteria.

On the same plane that the Infected person recently flew on... If that's not a reason to scare you before test results came in you would be a fool.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by Sedit]

Texium - 17-10-2014 at 22:08

Thus is the way of the pathologically liberal, seeing all things in extremes. Accusing one of paranoia and hysteria in lieu of honest level headed caution and concern in light of the real facts in existence at this time in history. Someone acts prudently and logically with sound reason and the pathologically liberal can only view it through the eyes of hysterical hyperbole. Par for the course.

The fact is this: you can count the number of cases of ebola in the United States on one hand. It seems to be pretty much under control, and the only case where it got passed off since arriving over here was due to stupid safety practices at that Dallas hospital. That's my honest, level-headed viewpoint. The media is sensationalizing this thing to death. You really think that the media that goes on a rant for weeks about a ghost plane wouldn't overhype the ebola scare? I guarantee this thing will blow over in a matter of time, at least in America, and we'll all forget about it in a matter of months. Then you'll move on and shake your fist at the politically correctness of some other issue.

Brain&Force - 17-10-2014 at 22:21

Thank Satan someone brought that bit of logic up. Don't bother stockpiling for apocalypses - there won't be one.

Anyone remember swine flu? And no, not the outbreak in 1917 - the one in 2008. The human population was dramatically reduced and infrastructure collapsed.

Wait...that DIDN'T HAPPEN...

And while I agree political correctness (and even the idea that someone can be offended) are crummy cop-outs, you do realize conservatives and liberals are both equally full of it.

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 00:11

I definitely agree that this is probably best suited for Whimsy as it's not a chemistry, nor an amateur amenable discussion. That said, can we please avoid comparing a BSL-4 agent with a BSL-2 agent and a non-transmissible food allergy? The very existence of BSL standards is so that we do not treat them the same way.
Most colleges could probably handle HIV, which is BSL-2. I run into that regularly in medical/research labs with no special precautions taken. I've seen Ebola once.

In terms of transmission in the U.S., we still don't have all the information here. For example, the CDC and local health officials were contacted by the Texas nurse and told she was okay to fly on two commercial flights, but now the CDC is questioning when she became symptomatic, and noting she may have been contagious during those flights. While it's unlikely to be an issue this time, it does demonstrate information is forthcoming. The U.S. isn't even currently handling the TX hospital lab worker who went on a cruise and is supposed to have Ebola according to the government of Belize, where she is being quarantined. This was after Mexico restricted travel, disallowing the ship to dock there.

I am far from an expert, but I have had both some education and training/experience in virology. I also had the opportunity to work with a "non-pathogenic" Reston sample years ago, which I declined. Take that for whatever it's worth on the internet, but keep in mind I do not claim expertise in epidemiology, virology, or Ebola.

As I said before, I think there are too many epidemiological variables to consider here, but we can note some of these variables.

1. Ebola is a retrovirus, which makes it inherently prone to mutation, and can make recovery from deceased patients in remote areas difficult due to sample degradation within hours.

2. Due to this inherent mutation, there are multiple strains of Ebola, including concurrent outbreaks. The CDC does not consider Congoleese Ebola to be the same strain as that raging in Liberia and related regions, per the WHO. There is no reason to expect these strains to show the same clinical fluid titers, as data has not necessarily been consistent.
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142....
See also the error/low n-values here:
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/human-transmission...
Note how little can be confirmed/ruled out in terms of transmission? These are with known strains.

3. We do not know much about Ebola; its natural viral reservoirs are unknown, what viral progenitor it had, its mutation clock, etc. Consider the possibility, however remote, that Ebola may take up residence in a suitable reservoir in a country outside of the African continent. This fear was hinted at with animal trafficking in Preston's The Hot Zone.

4. Ebola strains have shown the in vitro ability to infect humans through lung absorption with human lung cell lines. Even Ebola experts do not agree on the extent of significance of this. This means that concern over airborne transmission is valid, though not necessarily likely. All it takes is an appropriate change in capsid components, such as glycoproteins, or the lipid envelope to optimize small aerosol formation.
http://jvi.asm.org/content/77/10/5902.long

5. The U.S. in particular has access to novel vaccines and immunopharmaceutical/chemical intervention. First world nations have adequate sterilization techniques to mitigate fomites, since elimination of a viral envelope degrades virions rapidly. We also some the benefit of media and education, questionable though they may be; I doubt people will assault Ebola clinics here and disseminate sick patients among the population, or blaiming medical staff or chemicals (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/10/17...). However, we also need to be aware of our population density, transportation, and it has been speculated that "[...] demographic changes can affect the speed of evolution in epidemic pathogens even in the absence of natural selection [....]"
PMID: 23271803

6. We also have to take into medical preparedness, which is basically nill (taking into account every hospital in the U.S., at least). We can barely handle flu season, which is rapidly approaching. The cost of educations of medical personnel do not lend to seasonal labor. Nor are buildings built for it. I remember listening to hospital administration discussions on how to handle patient overflow with swine flu. Well, we potentially have MERS, SARS, EV-D68, bird flu, swine flu, and your run-of-the-mill variety to cause panic in patients and consume health resources.
And the respiratory syndromes are actually pretty hot infections, though case numbers in the west are lacking.

However, bear in mind that SARS prompted travel restrictions and quarantine in Asian countries. Geopolitical considerations may preclude this in some African nations, so again, there are just so many variables here it's difficult to say much of anything from a public access perspective.

From a more abstract perspective, people fear the unknown, and there are a lot of unknowns still to resolve with Ebola. Luckily, we have the scientific method to assist us, but this takes time and requires experimental controls. In veterinary medicine, you can apply techniques such as herd segregation on a population, and quarantine of individuals much more easily than with people. I think the question of when to begin applying the concepts of both to humans, rather than just the latter, is as reasonable as the answer seems elusive.

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 00:27

According to the CDC's own website ebola is a class A bioterrorism agent
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/agentlist-category.asp

Also for many years any research study of ebola has been restricted by federal law to NIH approved BSL-4 facilities

There are good valid scientific reasons for those designations and restrictions that are not attributable to any ridiculous paranoia or hysteria of drama queens by those who would now as a matter of political convenience indulge the self-deception or publish the disinformation and deception seeking to minimize *awareness* of the danger by misleading propaganda. Ebola is both highly lethal and highly contagious and this has been well known for decades.

Failure of the government of the U.S. to ban travel of persons potentially exposed to ebola or any other of the Class A agents without reliable screening and quarantine is a dereliction of duty that is criminal negligence and depraved indifference and is tantamount to conduct of a bioterrorism attack on the citizens being conducted by the government itself. It is a breach of national security.

Period.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

IrC - 18-10-2014 at 01:10

zts16 "The fact is this: you can count the number of cases of ebola in the United States on one hand."

How many days since those exposed on a flight, a cruise ship, a bridal store, other stores, money passed around, various homes, schools children living in the home of ground zero attended, and so on. How many days since those exposed, how many will they contact if they become symptomatic, and so on. How many more will fly in, sneak through the border, cycle repeats, and so on.

"The media is sensationalizing this thing to death."

As they always do, which has little bearing on the situation in the real world.

In the final analysis don't you think it is far too soon to make predictions, and it is reasonable to be cautious and take common sense precautions? Look at the pandemic in 1918, compare the virulence factor, consider the number of people and distance traveled 96 years ago as opposed to today.

"I guarantee this thing will blow over in a matter of time"

Possibly yet don't you think too little time has passed to know? How much money does your guarantee offer, how many can you pay if you are wrong, how much is the value on human lives? How many more refugees and/or terrorists will cross that border PC demands stay open and unwatched and what will happen yet future?

"Then you'll move on and shake your fist at the politically correctness of some other issue. "

Political correctness worthy of mere fist shaking has a different significance level than PC that ends up destroying lives. We do not yet know how this will end and can only hope it does so in silence. What about the future? How many animals ate the vomit that spent so much time laying outside the home of the first fatality before it was hosed down the street. Will 'natural viral reservoirs' be established here, what about down the road in time?

B&F "you do realize conservatives and liberals are both equally full of it. "

Why yes I do but this has little to no bearing upon the laws nature regulates itself by and I am quite certain nature does not consider the opinion of either party. It just is.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2798086/mutant-ebola...

http://www.vox.com/2014/10/13/6959087/ebola-outbreak-virus-m...

[Edited on 10-18-2014 by IrC]

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 01:17

Irrespective of placing fault on anyone, one thing I learned recently and found interesting, since you mentioned Plum Island (USDA zoonotic disease facility with a checkered history there) earlier, is that Ebola may pose an additional threat to aspects of various nations' food supplies, though this is yet another speculative unknown. To be a fly on the wall if/when the proposed National Bio and Agro Defense Facility requests samples from the BEI Resource Repository.
http://m.jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/204/suppl_3/S757.ful...

hissingnoise - 18-10-2014 at 04:04

Quote:

Failure of the government of the U.S. to ban travel of persons potentially exposed to ebola or any other of the Class A agents without reliable screening and quarantine is a dereliction of duty that is criminal negligence and depraved indifference and is tantamount to conduct of a bioterrorism attack on the citizens being conducted by the government itself. It is a breach of national security.

Like Bengazi, another opportunity for America's RWNJs to threaten the black man with impeachment and get him the hell out of their White House???

Bert - 18-10-2014 at 04:56

Quote:

Like Bengazi, another opportunity for America's RWNJs to threaten the black man with impeachment and get him the hell out of their White House???

Well, didn't work with shifting Reagan/Poppy Bush on for the quite deliberate neglect at the start of the US AIDS epidemic- Back when it was known definitively only sinful gay men and degenerate drug abusers would die of AIDS, and good riddance!

Fuck the politics. Fuck the grandstanding and backbiting. Put an actual epidemiologist in charge and FUCKING DO WHAT HE/SHE SAYS TO DO ABOUT THIS!!!

I am about to get into a tin can with 200+ other coughing, sweating people. No interest in party politics right now... Virology yes.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by Bert]

Amos - 18-10-2014 at 05:52

Quote: Originally posted by Bert

Quote:

Like Bengazi, another opportunity for America's RWNJs to threaten the black man with impeachment and get him the hell out of their White House???

Honestly, enough said right here. I think that, no matter where you lie on the political spectrum, we're all for this. We have a dangerous shortage of knowledgeable people in powerful places.

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 07:18

Something I was talking about with another DOD contractor is that regardless of the progression of an epidemic of ebola .....it is something which totally "creeps people out" when there is even one case of it encountered anywhere ......the impact on business there is devastating, for example the value of real estate or other property that is exposed goes straight into the ebola toilet.....so there is a "disruptive terror" aspect about ebola which extends the damage economically far beyond the immediate locality of the individual infected.

For example if there is an infected person on an aircraft then that aircraft has lost its value for what was its former use and essentially becomes an ebola plane. A ship is an expensive item of commercial property that can cost a million dollars just to deep clean but will most people want to be passengers later on a ship that has become stigmatized as a "plague ship" .....no, so the property value has right there turned to shit because potential passengers are "creeped out" by the thought of ebola. As another example, the Texas hospital where the ebola patient died has now shut down normal operations and is no longer a valid business, because employees don't want to work there and other patients don't want to be there either and are voting with their feet leaving because ebola "creeps them out" to the point the hospital will likely close after being put out of business by one patient who really never should have been there in the first place. When he walked in the door it was like an arson of the building.

What about the real estate value for private property that is the houses and apartments in the vicinity of an ebola case, when that property value also goes right into the ebola toilet because people no longer want to live there, and what about the extreme costs for decontamination that may be prohibitive to a point that lower valued properties are then simply burned to the ground?

The disruption of ordinary life and the economic hit that is associated with ebola goes way beyond the actual impact in biological effect for the disease itself. When ebola comes to a neighborhood it turns that neighborhood to shit overnight.

franklyn - 18-10-2014 at 07:32

The fact is this: you can count the number of cases of ebola in the United States on one hand.

@ zts16
That's exactly how the AIDS pandemic got started. I remember in 1984 when it was casually mentioned nothing to worry it's a gay disease ( contagion was largely due to their outrageously promiscuous conduct ). No one had yet thought about blood transfusion. I recall one time I was racing down a flight of stairs hand on the banister and felt a tug on my hand , moments after I felt it was wet , and saw I was bleeding. How many before me could have cut themselves there in the same way. No need to be stuck with a needle of an intravenous drug user for someone to be at risk if contagion is present in the environment.

Quote: Originally posted by Brain&Force

Anyone remember swine flu ? And no, not the outbreak in 1917 - the one in 2008 that DIDN'T HAPPEN

@ Brain&Force
Sure do , and it didn't happen because half of the population was vaccinated against it in 1976
http://archive.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/da...
Just because one can immunize against flu , it does not follow that one can for ebola
which has no treatment apart from a few anti viral drugs having trivial effect.

its natural viral reservoirs are unknown

@ Chemosynthesis
It's natural host is monkeys. People in the afflicted countries eat monkeys.

.

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 07:33

Rosco, I was just discussing that very topic. Although I ended it by asking an accountant to watch out for what property taxes on some of those big ticket items (plane/yacht) could decrease to.
edit: although that was far more lighthearted than I could make of the nuclear disaster premise Bert came up with.

Quote:

@ Chemosynthesis It's natural host is monkeys. People in the afflicted countries eat monkeys.[/font] .

Thank you, Franklyn, I do not mean host (which can include "spillover hosts" such as apes), but specifically natural reservoir, which is largely asymptomatic or non-pathogenic, but serves as a carrier vector such that the virus doesn't burn out. Bats are thought to be an Ebola reservoir, but data is not conclusive. There may be others.

EHF is generally far too lethal in a fairly short period of time for primates to perpetuate Ebola or related diseases (Marburg, RAVN, etc.), particularly with the long periods of apparent non-outbreak. It should burn out if reservoirs are not established. Plenty of bats in the U.S.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by Chemosynthesis]

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 07:39

Bargain real estate is available in the Chernobyl area.

Amos - 18-10-2014 at 07:51

Quote: Originally posted by franklyn

The fact is this: you can count the number of cases of ebola in the United States on one hand.

Quote: Originally posted by Brain&Force

Anyone remember swine flu ? And no, not the outbreak in 1917 - the one in 2008 that DIDN'T HAPPEN

its natural viral reservoirs are unknown

@ Chemosynthesis
It's natural host is monkeys. People in the afflicted countries eat monkeys.

.

There are a few things wrong here right now. Ebola and HIV are not even close to the same thing. A person inflicted with Ebola has the disease for around 30 days or less, and for the majority of this time, they show VERY, VERY obvious symptoms of being sick; this is a natural deterrent to most potential victims of the disease. On the other hand, someone with HIV has the disease for the remainder of their life, and on the outside they look like any other person, giving them a much better ability to inflict the disease upon others throughout the time they're infected. Ebola has a definite survival rate, which may well be quite a bit higher in the developed world than we have seen elsewhere, and those that do survive seem to gain immunity to it. Antibodies from their blood have also been shown to speed the treatment of other individuals(http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/179/Supplement_1/S18.l...), making the disease treatable, even curable, unlike HIV). Finally, HIV as a contagion can't exist "in the environment" as it is unable to live outside a host's body. No matter who cut themselves on the stairs there, you couldn't obtain HIV this way, unless their still-warm blood was laying there in wait.

Also, I'd like to point out that while humans mostly seem to get Ebola after contact with other primate species, research points to Bats being the primary vector, transmitting it first to monkeys and other primates, which in turn give it to us.

[Edited on 10-18-2014 by No Tears Only Dreams Now]

@ No Tears Only Dreams Now

franklyn - 18-10-2014 at 08:01

So what are you saying ?

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 08:46

Quote: Originally posted by hissingnoise

Quote:

Like Bengazi, another opportunity for America's RWNJs to threaten the black man with impeachment and get him the hell out of their White House???

If there is a sign that says "Whites Only" at the White House then I think the voters missed it during the past two elections, so playing the race card would seem like the desperate misdirection argument of scoundrels. That worn out sleight of hand political magic trick no longer gets any mileage.

However, the farcical attempt to transmogrify that message into being an equivalent of racist politics with a travel ban without regard to race for persons from ebola infested areas is an over reaching of political correctness that is complete idiocy that would only seem rational to a liberal progressive mind.

Yes isolation and quarantine is a form of segregation and discrimination, but so is triage and many other rational risk management strategies which are entirely sensible and should be done because the priority concerns are weighty enough to justify the exclusion of all lesser considerations.

This national security public health concern is not about right or left or black or white but is about smart survival thinking for the living versus being stuck on stupid and dead.

If that requires "regime change" then yeah Biden is looking better by the minute as a twenty-fifth amendment relief for the incompetent idiot in charge now.

What does he plan to do next when there is a national strike by medical care providers, will he fire them all like was done with the air traffic controllers? Get real.

What will be done when public schools are closed and parents won't send their children to be exposed to diseases of every variety that have been introduced by the unlawful introduction of disease vectors who are illegal alien children?

Will the government confiscate all the children and put all the parents in reeducation camps?

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 09:24

Some of you may find the unprecedented rate of mutation data we have been getting this epidemic interesting. Estimated 50 mutations in one month in one strain. Now remember there is more than one concurrent strain. Considering that many of these mutations are in diagnostic proteins where antibodies bind for immunofluorescence, we may end up with even more strain on our biotech/pharm sectors as new diagnostic testing may need to be investigated in the future.

http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-virus-mutating-rapidly-as-i...

While I have no reason to suspect this as inherently likely, it does make questions of transmissibility, therapeutic intervention, vaccination, and the establishment of reservoirs even more founded. Worst case scenarios: this could be very problematic with co-infections during flu season, which not only burden the healthcare system, but reduce host immune responses. If there were an established reservoir in your country (assuming you are not endemic region), you face the medical security risk of continual spillover and the need for continual medical intelligence to avoid diagnostic and/or therapeutic "escape mutants."

Just as with economics, there is always an unseen effect to our actions. If we avoid a catastrophy, rarely will we be able to see that in hindsight, and will instead enjoy the benefits in ignorance.

Rosco, in keeping with the "creepiness" factor, I have to wonder how much, under some circumstances, a healthcare education and intimate knowledge of the disease progression may foster denial in the face of exposure; after all, we are seeing two nurses (one a lab worker) who knew themselves to be exposed to confirmed Ebola infectious material (BSL-3 allowed for diagnostic testing out of sheer logistical necessity, BSL-4 for confirmed material).
Both traveled. The CDC is questioning details of one's sign/symptoms timeline. The Hot Zone details how in another instance, Mayinga, a nurse who knew she was infected, tried to flee to Europe and apparently even shared a drinking glass with someone. We can't write off these individual cases as ignorance.

S.C. Wack - 18-10-2014 at 09:37

This cannot be compared with Ebola, you are far beyond the apples and oranges realm.

It's not unfair at all as the comparison is obviously unrelated to type or origin of disorder. You might as well dismiss heat and darkness after having bad hot black coffee. We've scrubbed our schools of all traces of peanuts due to this same sort of keeping our kids safe conservatism, instead of making the peanut-allergic kid eat something else prepared elsewhere; had AIDS happened with today's mentality, all HIV-positives would still be exiled somewhere. What's next? Might as well exile the homosexual and drug using as well just to be safe, like random people who've been in Nigeria.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by S.C. Wack]

Texium - 18-10-2014 at 09:41

First, I feel like it's rather necessary to point this out: illegal immigrants are not bringing Ebola into the United States!
I don't know why such a stupid rumor seems to be going around, but it doesn't make any sense. It's unbelievably selfish to not help these people anyway. Isn't that something that America is supposed to take pride in? Taking care of the poor, tired, huddled masses?

And coming from someone who lives in Texas, nobody is getting sick and nobody is concerned about it other than hysterical hypochondriacs. I'd think it would be quite obvious if the disease has been spreading since it's been about a week since it came here. We'll just have to wait and see if any more cases appear in the next couple weeks.

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 10:02

It can't be determined or known what exactly illegal aliens (NOT "immigrants") may bring into any country because there is no screening or quarantine or control for illegal aliens. They are a security breach and threat by their very nature and their crime does not provide any testimony as to their good intentions or depth of respect for the security of themselves or anyone else, but is an ultimate expression of desperation and/or narcissism that minimizes any consideration for the safety and concerns of others. That fact alone makes illegal aliens dangerous and the statistics confirm that is true.

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 10:34

And coming from someone who lives in Texas, nobody is getting sick and nobody is concerned about it other than hysterical hypochondriacs. I'd think it would be quite obvious if the disease has been spreading since it's been about a week since it came here. We'll just have to wait and see if any more cases appear in the next couple weeks.

I think there is a definite need to distinguish between concern and fear.
Plenty of people in the medical/epidemic intelligence and scientific community are concerned about Ebola spreading, as the current multiple confirmed outbreaks have yet to die down globally. Concern, not necessarily fear, is absolutely warranted. No one I know is afraid, though I am sure many people out there are.

From the Nature news link I posted above.
"[…]Goba's team confirmed that Ebola was probably imported to Sierra Leone by 12 people who attended the funeral in Guinea, and that the West African outbreak originated in a single event in which the virus passed from an animal into a person." Several study authors died of Ebola. It's uncertain how they contracted it, or where.
Additional source: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/patient-zero-belie...

The evidence points towards this epidemic being strongly person-to-person transmitted, rather than animal-to-person. The downside to this is that it necessitates quarantine of and possible isolation from people, rather than an emphasis on isolation from animals.

As I have said before, what happens in Africa doesn't necessarily have epidemiological bearing in Europe of the U.S. due to demographics, but there are so many unknowns and possibilities that to dispell all concern is as unreasonable as buying special Ebola life insurance. One index case can cause a West African epidemic. There is no reason to believe any U.S. or European genetic resistance to this, but medical resources are far superior and demographics are different. If you overwhelm medical resources, which are by and large not particularly capable of implementing widespread BLS-4 protocols for patients with associated labs, that can be a problem.

Training in the appropriate use of BSL-4 gear is time consuming, it is uncomfortable, it is laborious to use. People working in BSL-4 environments have less autonomy than those in other levels because people often need help suiting up, sterilizing, spotting contaminants, etc. Suits are too insulating for comfort. They are bulky and loud, which makes movement and communication an issue for colleagues. It is extremely expensive to set up and operate these protocols. You run into ethical problems with people refusing to want to work in these conditions.

Hospital space is often at a premium, and trying to set up a new ICU, appropriate secondary diagnostic laboratories, and staff everything is very, very difficult.

What happens if your hospital shutdown due to contamination like the one in Houston? Where do your sick go? This becomes a logistical issue that no one prepared for. Hospital overflow wards have to be prepared in advance, and may be forced to make use of local school buildings or nearby facilities in the case of "normal" emergencies at community hospitals. I remember swine flu pandemic discussions about sticking patients in nursing homes, old schools or college dorms, and asking about local school health services' availabilities in the event of school closures.
http://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/07/nyregion/patient-overflow-...

http://www.mcknights.com/snfs-may-not-be-able-to-take-on-hos...

Additionally, for any horror authors among us, imagine the ecological implications of bats/rodents becoming a reservoir in the U.S. leading to recurrent endemic spillovers. Elimination of a wild animal species rather than isolated lab animals would be a disaster, if even remotely possible.

Rosco Bodine - 18-10-2014 at 12:23

Rosco, in keeping with the "creepiness" factor, I have to wonder how much, under some circumstances, a healthcare education and intimate knowledge of the disease progression may foster denial in the face of exposure; after all, we are seeing two nurses (one a lab worker) who knew themselves to be exposed to confirmed Ebola infectious material (BSL-3 allowed for diagnostic testing out of sheer logistical necessity, BSL-4 for confirmed material).
Both traveled. The CDC is questioning details of one's sign/symptoms timeline. The Hot Zone details how in another instance, Mayinga, a nurse who knew she was infected, tried to flee to Europe and apparently even shared a drinking glass with someone. We can't write off these individual cases as ignorance.

There is probably a branch of psychology that could be dedicated to stress induced neurosis / denial type of behaviors involving ebola and other things.

Reading the link about Typhoid Mary you get the picture she had to know she was a carrier but kept about her "business" like it was some kind of an identity crisis she could internalize as others dropped dead everywhere she went. That behavior could identify a syndrome. And there are other aspects of an associated stress induced neurosis where there could be a lot of that craziness and denial going around, so much of it that even a president could be affected.

Anyway, what I observed about the economic impact of people being "creeped out" about ebola is absolutely true.
The ebola infected nurse travelled using a particular airline and now that airline company has a big problem with selling tickets to other passengers. For some strange reason prospective passengers are not just lined up and chomping at the bit to buy seats on any of that airlines flights. Mysteriously it seems "business is dead" suddenly for some odd reason. Yeah ....go figure.

[Edited on 18-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

Amos - 18-10-2014 at 12:50

Quote: Originally posted by franklyn

So what are you saying ?

That your argument on how dangerous Ebola is was in part based on false claims and you need to make a better one. The only real similarity it shares with HIV is that they are both viruses.

Oh, and illegal immigrants bringing bad stuff over wouldn't be a problem if we legalized all immigration provided anyone coming over undergoes a background check, search, and medical checkup.

[Edited on 10-18-2014 by No Tears Only Dreams Now]

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 18:12

Here, members of the UK government equate thd current outbreaks of Ebola with nuclear weapons.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/...

It will be interesting to try and find out how accurate these epidemiological projections are in hindsight. They were predicated on initial massive underreporting. It also requires the quarantine of 70% of Ebola patients and cultural changes in African burial practices in all projections.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?mobile...

Quote:

Oh, and illegal immigrants bringing bad stuff over wouldn't be a problem if we legalized all immigration provided anyone coming over undergoes a background check, search, and medical checkup.

Completely untenable. Thorough background checks are prohibitively expensive, and get complicated when dealing with multinationals or foreign citizens. Adequate medical evaluations can also be costly (one aspect of the recent healthcare insurance reform attempts), and are predicated on getting an accurate personal history from a patient.

Texium - 18-10-2014 at 18:45

Yes, that's very true, thank you for correcting me. "Afraid" would fit much better in my statement than "concerned."

franklyn - 18-10-2014 at 19:57

@ No Tears Only Dreams Now
I do not understand you conflating ebola with Aids. The epidemiology is different. I'm still asking myself , what are you saying , which claims you attribute are false.

That Aids may resemble cancer in the time it takes to kill doesn't diminish it's threat , cancer is not communicable. Ebola is virulently contagious , akin to Yersinia Pestis.
As for the transmission by organic matter , you should ask of medical personnel what is Red Bag waste and why does it display a biohazard warning.
http://www.avert.org/hiv-blood-safety.htm
http://www.aids.gov/hiv-aids-basics/prevention/reduce-your-r...

I highlighted the dismissive general public attitude at the inception of the Aids epidemic as a major contributor to it's dissemination.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_the_Band_Played_On

It is precisely what you and zts16 engenders now regarding ebola. Communication of infection with ebola no matter how low the occurrence , is dangerous to those infected , and is a constant source for continued spreading. What number of preventable deaths are acceptable , before you consider it enough risk to do the sensible thing without regard to offending people. Assuming chronic presence of the disease in the population could be controlled.

Ellis Island the gateway for the tired and poor huddled masses , quarantined people until such time they were not deemed a source of communicable disease.
In Panama the Darién Gap of the Pan American Highway intentionally physically separates North America from South America to prevent the transmission of livestock diseases.

.

Amos - 18-10-2014 at 20:30

franklyn, the claims you made that are either factually incorrect or logically unsound:

That HIV can be transmitted from somebody cutting themselves on the same surface days, weeks, months, etc. after an HIV positive person's blood encountered that surface.

That HIV and Ebola are even remotely similar in their transmission, presentation, or contagiousness.

That monkeys are the natural host of Ebola. Monkeys may become infected from time to time, but the most-supported hypothesis is that the reservoir is the bat.

If you want to hear the argument as to why those things were incorrect or unwise to say, read back through the first two long-winded posts I made on the subject. If you are unable to glean the meaning from those words, then there is nothing more I can do.

@ No Tears Only Dreams Now

franklyn - 18-10-2014 at 20:41

These attributions you make to me exists in your mind alone.

As we note , you do not show direct quote of this.

.

Chemosynthesis - 18-10-2014 at 20:45

To be even more specific on my immigration backvround check point, USCIS has been continually or continuously backlogged for at least 8 years, and I doubt state DOJ is any better. Keep in mind this is for legal immigrants only. Even with overlap, when you look at illegal immigrants this will necessitate more personnel. Hiring qualified personnel for sensitive investigative positions, getting them computers, bandwidth, salaries, desks, parking space... all expensive.

Yes, that's very true, thank you for correcting me. "Afraid" would fit much better in my statement than "concerned."

No problem. It will be really interesting to see how public opinion varies throughout the country.

Apparently Texas has had more Ebola training for nurses than most regions, but 73% of nurses report not having been offered any training, and many lack appropriate BSL gear (assuming level B is counted with level A hazmat for the story). Training is time away from treating patients. Given how many medical staff members get respiratory infections during flu season despite innoculations (can't vaccinate every flu strain, but you can run into them at a hospital), epidemiological estimates could change rapidly. Transmissions may increase and co-morbid fatalities would be expected to.

http://qz.com/282247/american-nurses-lack-the-most-important...

Amos - 18-10-2014 at 21:04

Here's an edited version, with quotes from you to back it up. franklyn, the claims you made that are either factually incorrect or logically unsound:

Quote:

That's exactly how the AIDS pandemic got started. I remember in 1984 when it was casually mentioned nothing to worry it's a gay disease ( contagion was largely due to their outrageously promiscuous conduct ). No one had yet thought about blood transfusion. I recall one time I was racing down a flight of stairs hand on the banister and felt a tug on my hand , moments after I felt it was wet , and saw I was bleeding. How many before me could have cut themselves there in the same way. No need to be stuck with a needle of an intravenous drug user for someone to be at risk if contagion is present in the environment.

-That HIV can be transmitted from somebody cutting themselves on the same surface days, weeks, months, etc. after an HIV positive person's blood encountered that surface. There is no way for the HIV contagion to be "present in the environment" unless there was blood spilled from an HIV positive person mere minutes ago.

-That HIV and Ebola are even remotely similar in their transmission, presentation, or contagiousness. Unless you were simply typing words for the sake of typing them, I believe you were trying to compare our understanding and our tactics with regards to Ebola to those of HIV in the 1980s. As I said earlier, an Ebola patient is usually very noticeably sick, which makes it harder for them to infect others, and they are sick for a much shorter time, giving them less of a chance to infect others. Therefore it is much more easily identifiable as well as less contagious than HIV is.

Quote:

It's natural host is monkeys. People in the afflicted countries eat monkeys.

-That monkeys are the natural host of Ebola. Monkeys may become infected from time to time, but the most-supported hypothesis is that the reservoir is the bat.

If you want to hear the argument as to why those things were incorrect or unwise to say, read back through the first two long-winded posts I made on the subject that were directed to you. If you are unable to glean the meaning from those words, then there is nothing more I can do.

No Tears Only Dreams Now

franklyn - 18-10-2014 at 21:20

I understand now , you're delusional.

If someone can delineate the connection from my written word

to what - No Tears Only Dreams Now - says that it states ,

let them declare now or forever hold their tongue.

.

Chemosynthesis - 19-10-2014 at 00:07

Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now

As I said earlier, an Ebola patient is usually very noticeably sick, which makes it harder for them to infect others, and they are sick for a much shorter time, giving them less of a chance to infect others. Therefore it is much more easily identifiable as well as less contagious than HIV is.

I agree there should be no conparison the two from a disease standpoint, which is not what I think Franklyn meant; I believe he was using the example of a hidden reservoir (transfusions/organ donors) to compare with Ebola in an environment. That is to say the sharp handrail is a potential Ebola fomite, not an HIV one.
All said, in terms of semantics, I would be leery using "contagious" in this context. What little we do know about Ebola makes it BSL-4 rather than BSL-2 for a reason.
The reproductive rate of infectivity, or basic reproduction number/R nought does seem lower for the reported values of the current outbreaks (than HIV)... but it is important to bear in mind that vectors and routes of transmission can confound these measures. Also, note that the CDC feels the Ebola outbreaks are being underreported by a multiplier of 2.5x, which can't be taken into account yet. Demographics are also very different, so comparison is difficult. As I said initially, there are really too many unknowns at this point to compare the two accurately, and I believe this carries over to R nought as well. I think your initial wording about the two not being comparable was safer.

Just in case anyone wants to try to compare for argument's sake, it is known that Ebola has more vectors than witnessed for HIV, each of which is more likely to zoonotically transmit Ebola than an animal would HIV. The fact that we do not know every vector is another problem in stating HIV as being categorically more contagious. The virulence of Ebola, however, is indisputably dramatically higher than HIV, and is far more difficult to treat. HIV has demonstrably useful prophylactic interventions being tested, as well as in place for accidental exposure. This virulence, and the relatively short latency period relative to HIV, makes treatment much more difficult. I have known people to get exposed to HIV from research use lab blood samples that were old enough not to have been tested for it, but were not infected. They received immediate gamma globulin and interferon alpha just in case, with treatment and monitoring throughout a 2-week period before initial testing, repeat testing continued for some time afterwards I wasn't privy to. They were declared HIV free, though this may have been a dry injection.

http://www.hivandhepatitis.com/recent/2011/0111_2011_c.html Zinc acetate/
antiviral prophylaxis in stage 2b and preclinical primate trials. Not shown: additional promising data in non-primate mammals. MIV-150 appears to generally require 3 specific mutations for HIV resistance to treatment (PMC3094984). We don't have a single Ebola treatment with that kind of promise. Until Glaxo finishes phase 2 trials due late this year on its experimental vaccine, we won't have any efficacy days for a prophylaxis to compare with the MIV/ZnAc or other HIV experimental treatments from CAPRISA trials. Now, with a viable vaccine, epidemiology will change, but handling protocols will not.

Viral titers in various fluids are also different. Ebola has been detected in tears, sweat, mucous, saliva, etc. in a much more alarming concentration than HIV and is considered transmissible by contact with any of these fluids in addition to semen and blood. It would be informative if we had transmissibility data for each, though I can only think of one way to get such data....

macckone - 19-10-2014 at 08:02

R₀ is below 1 in the US. At least based on the
information we have. Since it is below 1 there is unlikely
to be sustained transmission. If it becomes airborne that
could change but until it does there is no need to
stop all of the direct flights from west Africa.
Especially since there are no such flights.

The below 1 figure is based on 4 patients infected in africa
And 2 US transmissions to date.

Little_Ghost_again - 19-10-2014 at 08:17

on the plus side inside 3 years 75% of the world population will be gone, good news for the rain Forrest and global warming.
Mass outbreak in USA inside 6 months, France inside 3 months Uk inside 9 months.
China 15 months but with devastating effect same as japan. My source undisclosed but from official papers seen with my very own eyes.

BTW vaccines are being tested and produced via tobacco plants and CHICKEN EMBRYOS.
Little hope of a vaccine inside 2 years, The drugs that worked were actually blood plasma from a nun and now thats all gone

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Little_Ghost_again]

Rosco Bodine - 19-10-2014 at 08:29

R₀ is below 1 in the US. At least based on the
information we have. Since it is below 1 there is unlikely
to be sustained transmission. If it becomes airborne that
could change but until it does there is no need to
stop all of the direct flights from west Africa.
Especially since there are no such flights.

The below 1 figure is based on 4 patients infected in africa
And 2 US transmissions to date.

Just for the sake of argument let's examine a worst case scenario for an R naught of 0.9 for an infection having a Mortality also of 0.9 affecting a population of 320 million people like in the U.S. ........that means that if there was no intervention and the epidemic simply ran its course 260 million people will die and 60 million will survive.

Does anyone feel reassured about that arithemetic?

That doesn't take into account the collateral death and destruction from such a catastrophe, nor does it account for the real possibility that the R naught could be much higher as infrastructure collapses.

The point is that an epidemic with an R naught even well below 1 is still capable of being a world ender for life as we know it.

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

Amos - 19-10-2014 at 08:45

Are the people quoting the mortality rate as 90%(especially as a potential mortality rate in the developed world) just trying to be as biased as possible in their research? The total number of cases tends to level out at 50-70% mortality, and virtually every single one of those happened in rural parts of Africa with little or no treatment. In a week or two, the mortality rate within the United States is likely going to be 33.3% or less(if others get it and survive with treatment) once those two nurses have recovered. I'm not saying that Ebola isn't threatening and scary, but come on, 90%? That's BS and you know it.

[Edited on 10-19-2014 by No Tears Only Dreams Now]

Rosco Bodine - 19-10-2014 at 09:24

You have no way of knowing the actual numbers and neither do I, and I prefaced my use of 0.9 by saying it was just for the sake of argument to try to make a valid point that would not surprisingly be lost on you.

It isn't me that is counting their chickens before they are hatched, it is idiots in administrative positions who lack depth and who are simply lying about the potential dangers of their incompetent management decisions which have potentially fatal consequences for others who do not consent to such reckless decisions being made for them.

The CDC puts out propaganda on television that doesn't even square with their own data published on their own website for years before this medical issue and public health issue became politicized. All the current administration has done is lie about one scandalous thing after another and people are sick and tired of hearing the damn lies. The political hack now appointed as the ebola czar has no medical credentials and was formerly associated with another scandal that was Solyndra. The great vision of Obama care now seems to be an agenda of retasking the health care facilities of the U.S. into becoming the world's ebola treatment clinic.

If liberal progressives want people from abroad to be allowed entry into "their realm" who are potential disease carriers, then quarantine the diseased all together on their own isolated private estates where they can wallow in their altrusitic diversity and cultural sensitivity while hoping everything goes okay. But keep it out of community hospitals and schools where my own family may be exposed to danger when that is simply not necessary or prudent and defies common sense.

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

Little_Ghost_again - 19-10-2014 at 09:30

90% death rate is pretty close to the truth, not all deaths have been tested. But ALL official studies in lab settings confirm this is a sub strain Zaire and 90% is about right plus or minus 2%.
Its one reason tabbaco is now being used for vaccine production, normal fast route is egg embryo done under ethical scrutiny, the problem with Ebola is its so deadly that most embryo techniques are failing, hence why the much much slower tabbaco route has had to be taken.
I would love to prove all this but I would of thought it obvious why I cant post pics of the letters or emails.

Amos - 19-10-2014 at 10:41

Quote: Originally posted by Little_Ghost_again

90% death rate is pretty close to the truth, not all deaths have been tested. But ALL official studies in lab settings confirm this is a sub strain Zaire and 90% is about right plus or minus 2%.
Its one reason tabbaco is now being used for vaccine production, normal fast route is egg embryo done under ethical scrutiny, the problem with Ebola is its so deadly that most embryo techniques are failing, hence why the much much slower tabbaco route has had to be taken.
I would love to prove all this but I would of thought it obvious why I cant post pics of the letters or emails.

Where'd your numbers come from?

Little_Ghost_again - 19-10-2014 at 11:45

Quote: Originally posted by No Tears Only Dreams Now

Quote: Originally posted by Little_Ghost_again

Where'd your numbers come from?

I wrote loads but edited it all out, really sorry but I felt I had too

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Little_Ghost_again]

Chemosynthesis - 19-10-2014 at 12:30

R₀ is below 1 in the US. At least based on the information we have.

It will hopefully stay that way, but the CDC is still tracking down exposed individuals, and Ebola is demonstrably mutating. Also, one could distinguish between people brought to the U.S. in secure transit against the cases diagnosed here. Some sketchy news reports of Nina Pham's boyfriend and possibly an employee of his being quarantined are coming in. I think the biggest deal is the mutation factor. There are more than one current strain out mutating at random, and even if the current one on U.S. soil is contained very well, the threat is still out there. Even if with no change, if by some change our BSL-4 ward capacity were overwhelmed, which is a very real threat, we can expect transmission to increase. This is a valid assessment, and is why the CDC is interested in designating a state Ebola hospital that will be mandated to figure out a way to handle more patients.
Lab work would be a little easier since technically you can handle unconfirmed Ebola samples in BSL-3 protocol, but that is only because it is a logistical necessity.

I doubt this is going to be a big deal, but it turns out Dr. Sacra doesn't know how or when he was infected as he didn't handle Ebola patients or suspected cases. He knew he was working in a hot zone area, so he would probably have been on the lookout. Just goes to show it may not always be so easy to spot Ebola cases and avoid them.

macckone - 19-10-2014 at 13:20

Rocco> R naught of less than one means the probability of
each case infecting someone else is low. This means that
in developed countries we are unlikely to have sustained
outbreaks. In the US each infected individual entering the
country has a 50% chance of infecting one person.
To get substantial numbers of people infected we would
need substantial numbers of infected people travelling.
But infected people are likely to be too sick to travel.

Now the death tolls in the developing world are likely to
be substantial. Even most south American countries are
likely to have lower R naught than Liberia. But even west
African countries like Nigeria have reasonable control
over the epidemic. Again the situation may change and
Where the epidemic is raging the situation is dire. For the
US and Europe the situation is actually pretty good.

Chemosynthesis - 19-10-2014 at 13:35

I disagree that sick patients are unlikely to travel; we don't necessarily know that. Sierra Leone had 12-14 infected people return from a funeral via plane. We have two nurses in the U.S. who flew repeatedly and a scare where a worker used a cruise ship. Historically, we have a sick nurse Mayinga traveling. This is complicated by potential travel during prodromal or presymptomatic stages.

Affected nations don't have enough hospital space and the WHO seems unable to meet demand.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/the-om...

Some sources claim we only have 9 dedicated Ebola rooms in the country:
http://mashable.com/2014/10/16/ebola-us-hospital-capacity/

All it takes is one "super spreader" funeral, field trip, or individual with the flu and Ebola and we could easily reach capacity. Then we begin triage, and releasing patients it is in our best interest to be able to observe (Sacra) for post treatment issues. 9 or so beds for something like Ebola was plenty when it wasn't here. Now reassessment is being considered, from the CDC, in designating Ebola hospitals in each state and changing Ebola healthcare guidelines. The Pentagon is even creating an Ebola rapid response team to assist civilian healthcare domestically, which may have Posse Comitatus questionability if not sheepdipped (not that I expect anyone to mind). To the best of my knowledge, the legality of the Army acting in Preston was never really questioned much or resolved. To be involved, the Pentagon must be concerned.

Here is an article from a former FDA deputy commissioner stating we just don't know what to expect, since we know little and we have never dealt with anything like this in a healthcare admin perspective.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2014/10/17/in-the-...

I'm not even necessarily concerned about the Ebola virus itself... the strain on our healthcare system is enough to be concerned. All this is using huge amounts of resources that could negatively impact future care, even if temporarily, in an economic climate where healthcare wages, retirement, sick leave, etc. is being decreased for providers.

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Chemosynthesis]

Rosco Bodine - 19-10-2014 at 14:02

Rocco> R naught of less than one means the probability of
each case infecting someone else is low. This means that
in developed countries we are unlikely to have sustained
outbreaks. In the US each infected individual entering the
country has a 50% chance of infecting one person.
To get substantial numbers of people infected we would
need substantial numbers of infected people travelling.
But infected people are likely to be too sick to travel.

Now the death tolls in the developing world are likely to
be substantial. Even most south American countries are
likely to have lower R naught than Liberia. But even west
African countries like Nigeria have reasonable control
over the epidemic. Again the situation may change and
Where the epidemic is raging the situation is dire. For the
US and Europe the situation is actually pretty good.

What you are saying is based upon assumptions that may not hold true, and the R nought value resultant is affected by the population density as well as the standards of care.
An R nought value below 1 in an isolated village produces far less total mortality than the same value at rush hour in Grand Central Station. It is also an endpoint ex post facto *average* value which does not rule out the worst case scenario example as possible, nor is it a limiting factor but is simply a figure that may or may not hold true for estimating a result for a *similar model* that has roughly the same parameters as those that which produced that R nought value which described one regional outbreak. Comparing the R nought generated by an outbreak in an isolated village is not valid for modeling what may occur in a large city. Nothing is written in stone and it is an oversimplification to think the R nought gives a good prediction for what will happen when different variables are at work. With air travel thrown into the model, and the whole world population made the global village, with population density another aggravation ......such factors could cause a higher realized R nought in spite of the best medical care facilities and strategies that would mitigate the outcome.

Anyway the R nought for ebola is more than 1 even in the case of isolated village populations of Africa and to make the assumption that ebola should necessarily have a lower R nought in densely populated cities having better sanitation and medical care may not be a valid assumption since population density alone may more than offset those factors which otherwise should cause a lower R nought. It is a total crap shoot what ebola could do if set loose in a large city.

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=2...

[Edited on 19-10-2014 by Rosco Bodine]

macckone - 20-10-2014 at 07:39

No one has actually caught Ebola on a plane.
And we have had active patients flying and in
Major cities with no known transmission except nurses.
In Africa most of the transmission has been
To care givers, not strangers on a bus.
Even Duncan's family did not get infected
While dealing with his illness. R naught in
The case of Ebola does not appear to be
Related to population density as much as the
number of care givers for the ill.
Monrovia is a major city and although there
Thousands infected the R naught is still
Slightly over one. In Nigeria and another African
Country the outbreaks were contained as
They were in Spain. Only three countries have
Sustained transmission and so far R naught
In the US is still below 1. Even with improperly
sending Duncan home and allowing one sick nurse
To fly. The CDC is improving protocols and preparing
Specific hospitals to manage potential patients.
Unless we start seeing a much higher R naught
In countries with better health care this does not
Seem like as much of an issue as the flu that
Kills more people annually in the US than Ebola has
Infected ever. It may be deadly but Ebola doesn't
Have the spread potential of measles or the flu.

Rosco Bodine - 20-10-2014 at 09:08

public service announcement from the new ebola czar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHa-AvLk4no

<iframe sandbox width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/AHa-AvLk4no?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

gregxy - 20-10-2014 at 09:30

Keep in mind the terrorism factor. All it would take is some extremest flying to Liberia, chopping the finger off of a corpse and flying to any major airport and dripping the bloody residue on handrails, door knobs etc. Hundreds of new cases widely distributed and impossible to trace. Cold and flu season is coming up making it difficult tell which is which in the early stages. The entire USA has about 20 class 4 hospital beds.

The US spent trillions of $, 100,000 of lives and created millions that hate us because they though Iraq was working on bio-weapons. An here one is ready to go.

The disease IS airborne. What changed in the way the hospitals are supposed to handle the disease? They now wear respirators instead of paper masks. Winter is approaching (higher humidity and less UV to kill the virus meaning it will stay viable longer in the air and on surfaces). Africa quite a sunny place.

The virus is found in ALL body secretions. It can infect epithelial cells which means it can leave and enter the body through the respiratory tract. HIV cannot do this. Colds and the flu can, but the infection is limited to the lining of the respiratory tract so the damage they can do is limited.

Clearly, illegal immigrants don't have it now, but what if Ebola enters Mexico city?

On the positive side the stock market has not crashed so plenty of smart people, who often get it right think this will pass without incident.

[Edited on 20-10-2014 by gregxy]

macckone - 20-10-2014 at 10:20

Keep in mind the terrorism factor.

Lots of things can be used as terrorism agents.
Sars is a lot more contagious and about as deadly.
No one is in China hunting civet cats.
I would be more worried about someone lining up
in an airport security line and detonating the wednesday
before thanksgiving.

The disease IS airborne. What changed in the way the hospitals are supposed to handle the disease? They now wear respirators instead of paper masks.

The disease is not classified as airborne.
Yes droplets can be expelled containing the virus
and yes they can penetrate the paper masks.
But this is not the same as the flu for example.
This is more of a projectile vomit in your face thing.
Although it has also been transmitted via blood splatter
from patients that are moving around a lot.
Interestingly enough blood, vomit and sputum seem
to be the primary methods of transmission although
the virus is also excreted in feces, sweat and semen.

The Duncan case is probably the worst case in the US.
He was sent home when he was contagious and
even though his family spent three days caring for him,
none of them were infected (now 21 days with clean test).
They cleaned up his vomit, his feces and were exposed to
his sweat but were not infected even without proper
protective gear. This gives some indication of how hard it
actually is to catch this disease.

[Edited on 20-10-2014 by macckone]

careysub - 20-10-2014 at 10:40

Keep in mind the terrorism factor. All it would take is some extremest flying to Liberia, chopping the finger off of a corpse and flying to any major airport and dripping the bloody residue on handrails, door knobs etc. Hundreds of new cases widely distributed and impossible to trace. ...

[Edited on 20-10-2014 by gregxy]

Whoa there. Don't let techno-thriller-ready plots get ahead of reality.

Such a scenario is conceivable - that someone might try to do something like this. But you need to think carefully about how effective this would really be.

The Ebola virus only lasts a few hours on surfaces. Getting it on a surface or surfaces that would really have lots of people touch, and getting them infected is not that easy. The active virus count is going to be dramatically lower than what health care workers handling actual infected patients see.

This form of biological warfare delivery, called "fomites" is actually very hard to get to work well. People always underestimate the problems, and overestimate the effectiveness. Back in the days of biological weapons research using fomites was considered to be an ineffective technique.

Impossible to trace? Nothing could be further from the truth. If there were a focus of infection in an airport, this would be evident very quickly and people who were at potential risk could quickly be identified as well even though the number might be large (we already went through this with SARS) .

jock88 - 20-10-2014 at 13:45

If Nigeria can do it so can the US.

IrC - 20-10-2014 at 13:55

If Nigeria can do it so can the US.

They closed their borders, tracked down everyone exposed, had soldiers carrying full auto weapons refusing anyone to come in without permission. Works just fine doesn't it.

"The Ebola virus only lasts a few hours on surfaces."

If they would fly aircraft into buildings they have no problem exposing themselves and getting in through the southern border before any signs would be visible. After they started feeling ill visiting all the highly populated areas they could until they dropped dead. Don't kid yourself Sublette. Even a poor Chess player could reason this scenario out.

Chemosynthesis - 20-10-2014 at 14:20

No one has actually caught Ebola on a plane.
And we have had active patients flying and in
Major cities with no known transmission except nurses.

We do not know we have had active (symptomatic?) patients flying, unless you mean the patients in specialized isolation wards on the way Emory and the NIH, which is hardly comparable. It is suspected in the case of one nurse. What happens if you have someone with transmissible Ebola and a secondary flu infection? What happens if we reach isolative capacity? Altering how a hospital functions is not a trivial task. It will be time consuming. We do not know enough about Ebola in general, or this current mutating strain, to expect salivary or mucosal viral titers to be too low to transmit via aerosol if a patient sneezes due to influenza. Primates have been infected with nebulized Ebola in experimental conditions. That scenario is a nightmare for a pressurized plane with circulating airflow. Suddenly you have a super spreader that exceeds both U.S. Ebola transport and isolative capacity.

Quote:

The CDC is improving protocols and preparing
Specific hospitals to manage potential patients.

I have said this before, yes, but hospitals can barely manage the flu. The CDC is updating guidelines, which now emphasis better hazmat/BSL PPE... which many hospitals don't have as I linked in a previous post. Hospitals nationwide lack both appropriate training and safety gear. The expense to equip, train, and get hospitals set up with makeshift BSL-4 isolation rooms and a lab will be prohibitive, and will potentially impact patient care regardless of whether you have Ebola or a sprained ankle. Staff will not be able to rapidly transition from Ebola duty to normal rounds without risking nosocomial infection. Personnel will likely need two weeks or more or training, which is time spent not treating patients. Lab work will be slowed. Patients will want to avoid an "Ebola hospital." Ebola hospitals will almost certainly be well equipped teaching institutions with high standards of care. If there is only one per state, how do you expect to transport patients from all over the state to said hospital? Isolation is expensive. Airlifts are expensive. Are we going to take an ambulance out of rotation as dedicated Ebola transport ambulances on standby in each hospital around a state?

I am hardly arguing we are in for the apocalypse, or even that Ebola itself will be a problem in the U.S. The repercussions of Ebola are a problem. Listen, hospital funding is low. This is because government research is low, and economy is not burgeoning. I am not sure if you know any medical personnel or have worked in a hospital, but the hospitals here have had to decrease employee retirement, sick leave, and paid vacations. The way pensions are counted at the state and county level has had to change. The reason for these is that hospitals are suffering financially. Pensions are also unfunded liabilities in most states (not linked).
http://healthworkscollective.com/danyelljones/119531/hospita...

http://www.aha.org/content/00-10/05fragilehosps.pdf

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/07/13/ill...

http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2013/12/31/health-care-prepare...

You mention that Ebola has not killed as many people as the flu. Perhaps if we stick to using the U.S. for both those numbers, since projections for Ebola deaths are 1.4 million by the new year globally, sure. Swine flu didn't kill many patients in the U.S. either, or infect many compared to "normal flu." I still had to hear hospital meetings where top administrators struggled to find overflow ward space in schools and nursing homes. These people do have jobs, despite what many staff believe, and they were taking time away from other issues to deal with overflow, which is inadequate. When you get flu season and are sealing off parts of the hospital for an Ebola ward, you will have logistical problems.

Ebola specialists say there is a risk of future airborne transmission, even if it is remote. If there is even the possibility of Ebola mutating to appear more like Reston in transmissibility, while retaining Zaire's fatality rate, some bureaucratic hospital administrator has to start managing hospital money that would pay for the sunk cost of an emergency surgery performed on someone who couldn't pay whatever insurance didn't cover. No hospital wants to tell you this, but this is very likely to diminish quality of care, at least in the short term. It will prevent the hiring of another nurse, physician, pharmacist, PhD, technician, replacement microscopes, a remodel/opening of a more up-to-date ward-- whatever. It will reduce bed space, lab capacity, an ICU for isolation. An ICU is kind of a big deal for children with EV-D68, or the elderly or immunocompromised with flu. ICU visits (not deaths) for influenza are underreported, by the way, since they are voluntary disclosures.

The Texas hospital that treated one patient and infected two healthcare workers shut down. That affects people's lives. Now patients need to go elsewhere and add strain to another hospital that was only set up to treat their local citizens. Now you have staff out of work. Now that building and equipment aren't being used to treat people.

Chemosynthesis - 20-10-2014 at 15:04

The Duncan case is probably the worst case in the US. He was sent home when he was contagious and even though his family spent three days caring for him, none of them were infected (now 21 days with clean test). They cleaned up his vomit, his feces and were exposed to his sweat but were not infected even without proper protective gear. This gives some indication of how hard it actually is to catch this disease.

No, this tells us very little.

1. There are multiple concurrent strains of this virus which has mutated a demonstrated 50-55,000 times in the current outbreaks, in one strain. We cannot assume each strain will have the same characteristics, as Ebola Reston is demonstrably different from its relative Zaire in many ways, while genetically similar.

2. Viral titers vary by stage of infection. We know little about this for any strain. It turns out the CDC believes the tow Texas nurses were infected because of exposed skin, hence the new guidelines on PPE. Dr. Sacra contracted Ebola from an unknown route while treating patients thought to be Ebola free.

3. I am not seeing any reports detailing the care given to Duncan by his family. Where are you getting your information from? What I see is that his sheets were "soiled" without mention of what fluids/waste was left uncleaned, or that he was incapable of using the bathroom unassisted. Ebola patients are typically able to walk for some time even after the internal bleeding commences (Mayinga, Sacra, Pham, probably Duncan in the hospital initially all walked while symptomatic), and diahrrea isn't necessarily incontinence.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/19/ebola-q...

4. Duncan is speculated as having contracted Ebola from helping a collapsed pregnant woman. This does not sound particularly invasive, and so we do not end up with much actual information about how easily transmitted this strain is.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/19/health/us-ebola/index.html

gregxy - 20-10-2014 at 15:48

I also think it is suspicious how quickly the Dallas hospital gave in....
Must have been enormous pressure on them.

I have not seen any detailed report on precisely how the 3 nurses in western hospitals caught the disease. Were they stuck with needles? Did they get vomit all over them? Where was this uncovered skin?

The following states viruses can survive on surfaces for 3 to 12 weeks
(no specific data on Ebola).
http://www.unc.edu/courses/2008spring/envr/421/001/WHO_Virus...

Duncan probably told his family to keep their distance. If you have been over there and tended to a sick person isn't that what you would do, even if you weren't feeling sick?

careysub - 20-10-2014 at 16:30

If Nigeria can do it so can the US.

Having self-infected Ebola vectors travelling around to infect others is an entirely different scenario than the one gregxy was postulating, and one I didn't comment on (and see my response to grexy below).

Dial back the attitude please.

It is certainly possible to deliberately import an Ebola infection during the latency period.

But visiting populated areas does not pass on infection.

Exposing the mucuous membranes or skin breaks of people to bodily fluids/secretions of the infectious sick does.

Once symptoms show, you get very sick very quickly.

This suggests this strategy is limited in the number of secondary cases it can generate. In the midst of an Ebola scare people are not going to want to come into intimate contact with a very ill stranger.

Is he jabbing people with needles in public? An obviously ill man doing this would get apprehended it pretty quickly.

Please, "Mr. Chess Player" think this thing through. The end-game is all important.

[Edited on 21-10-2014 by careysub]

careysub - 20-10-2014 at 16:36

..
The following states viruses can survive on surfaces for 3 to 12 weeks
(no specific data on Ebola).
http://www.unc.edu/courses/2008spring/envr/421/001/WHO_Virus...

...

Then you should have looked up a relevant study that did provide specific data on Ebola. Your "3-12 weeks" is for Adenoviruses, which the paper you cited notes is the most environmental resistant virus group. Ebola is a Filovirus.

Here is a paper that does address this question:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.p...

The specific situation you are proposing - blood smeared open surfaces that people might touch - is addressed with this:
"One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature".

So, no, it would not spread infection.

Rosco Bodine - 20-10-2014 at 17:42

Quote: Originally posted by careysub

Here is a paper that does address this question:
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.p...

The specific situation you are proposing - blood smeared open surfaces that people might touch - is addressed with this:
"One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature".

So, no, it would not spread infection.

Ummmm......

Quote:

"One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature"

That statement is hardly supportive of the over reaching conclusion making a generalization because it is one study only....and there could be a dozen other studies that show different results. UV light and humidity and temperature and pH are probably all factors in what would be the longevity of virus in the environment.

IrC - 21-10-2014 at 07:46

If I had an 'attitude' it would have been far more aggressive, you are assuming attitude. So be it. I have read 4 pages so far of people talking about how it is so hard one would think we are supposed to believe it is nearly impossible to contract Ebola. Yet over 4,500 have died in 2014 thus far per CDC and WHO. A reasonable person would expect a citizen trapped in the location of the outbreak would be going as far out of their way as is possible to avoid the disease due to the fear factor and simple human nature, the will to survive. So how did such a large number die in under a year. Obviously not so difficult to contract as so many are saying in this thread.

Assuming a set 70 percent fatality rate obviously greater than 6,400 have contracted the virus. Each one at least trying to avoid the disease if at all possible. Also, virtually all of them knew the score meaning warned so at least protected by the knowledge of the presence of Ebola. Here in the states this is not so, people go about their day assuming Ebola is somewhere else. They may read news stories and are somewhat concerned but not being surrounded by death and misery on a mass scale they are effectively not warned, they go about their lives as if the danger is somewhere in the distance. So they are not in the survival mode of taking every possible precaution and paying very close attention as are virtually all the people in the affected areas in Africa.

Also no one will convince me a victim is not contagious until they are spewing vomit, blood, and other materials. I think it far more likely they can spread it before that stage for one simple reason. The numbers in Africa. Does anyone actually believe the people over there are not avoiding as much as possible all those with such clearly evident signs. Therefore the only answer to the growing numbers in the hot zones is exposure to those who do not appear obviously violently ill. It would have to be more than only those clearly ill, which most people would be avoiding at all costs. Simple common sense. I see no reason to believe many who appear safe at the time are not possible sources of contagion.

You effectively stated the opposite of this by asking me to rethink my Chess comment among other words such as the chance of terrorists spreading Ebola in a Mall is near zero. If this were so then how is it outbreaks are occurring in multiple hot spots in Africa. The people are not that ignorant and as I said unlike here they know Ebola is all around so they have a much more heightened sense of self preservation than average citizens going about their lives over here.

"The specific situation you are proposing - blood smeared open surfaces that people might touch - is addressed with this:
"One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature".

So, no, it would not spread infection."

One study proof does not make and since I have read for months in many sources 48 hours to a week is how long Ebola can survive on a surface I do not buy your statement it cannot survive at all. That contacting infected substances on a surface a few hours after it is deposited is safe. So you say. So your 'one study says', I for one believe neither. When there are conflicting reports which differ by this much a wise person errs on the side of caution and does not so cavalierly say "So, no, it would not spread infection". Also, why do the hazmat teams suit up and so carefully clean an area a day or two later putting everything into bio-hazard containment. Why bother. The two fools hosing down the vomit outside the home of patient zero in Texas in plain clothes must have known what they are doing? I doubt it.

You may choose to believe this but I for one do not. There is a reason so many have died even though being aware of the danger they have tried as best they can to avoid it. There is a reason reports by virologists have suggested over a million deaths by January is very possible and that reason is not because you can only contract Ebola from someone so obviously ill they are a day or three away from death. I also find it odd that studies on the ease of contracting Ebola I read 10 years ago are virtually erased online and now everywhere you look you read about facts more in line with the position you are taking. That it is very hard to be infected unless a victim is puking or bleeding all over you.

I do not buy it for one minute. Too many medical people highly trained and well equipped taking all precautions have caught the virus in Africa for me to believe the current prevailing 'calm the people and allay all fears' studies which are so recently showing up everywhere you look.

I am not now nor will I ever be a Lemming no matter how many people think it is 'trendy' today.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ebola+lifetime+on+surface&am...

fficial&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=ssl

So many opinions out there.

http://www.infowars.com/scientists-ebola-can-spread-by-air-i...

While I have no doubt few approve of this site, at least someone is keeping this information in public view.

caresub, just using phrases towards members such as "irc's rant" is insulting and combative for it creates nothing but negative impressions which broadly categorize the worth of all the statements in the entire post. Why don't you grow up.

I put this reply to the below post of yours here since I can still edit this post and this does not warrant a new post which would start things all over again. I had respect for you and your work and even gave you a glowing welcome. Consider that no longer valid.

[Edited on 10-22-2014 by IrC]

gregxy - 21-10-2014 at 12:38

careysub: Thanks for the reference. I had been looking for the life time of the virus under various conditions. Going from 4C to room temp greatly reduces its lifetime on surfaces. Note the aerosol remains viable for over an hour at room temp.

There are much more effective ways for terrorists to spread the stuff that smearing it on door knobs. But I don't want to give them ideas....

My point is that, if you consider ebola the WMD that it is, in addition to building this expensive ebola ward in the hospital, now you need to guard it with soldiers to stop some ISIS wanabe from stealing a contaminated Q-tip. (And there are endless other means for them to get it).

Allowing un-quarantined people leave west Africa helps no one
and is very dangerous until an effective treatment is found.

Do you trust what they are saying about ebola enough to let someone you care about sit next to a person on a bus or plane with ebola?

Maybe the Russians or Chinese will have some sense....

Chemosynthesis - 21-10-2014 at 15:44